The US liquefied natural gas (LNG) Industry has emerged within the past decade to become an important and growing sector of the US economy, with LNG exports not only contributing more than $400 billion to US GDP but also supporting hundreds of thousands of high-quality American jobs since 2016. However, the industry is facing significant hurdles, from the January 2024 US Department of Energy ‘pause’ to mounting permitting challenges and the shifting regulatory and political landscape. 

The impact on the industry already is being felt and extends beyond the ‘pause’ itself. With the US LNG sector’s export capacity projected to double over the next 5 years, driving an average of half a million jobs per year and representing an incremental $1.3 trillion dollar boost to the economy through 2040, much is at stake in the current policy debate.

This industry’s impact reaches far beyond gas-producing states, with the LNG value chain and its related economic impact extending throughout much of the US. Beyond US shores, US LNG supplies responded when Europe faced an energy crisis during the Ukraine-Russia war. Indeed, US LNG adds a new dimension to the influence and geopolitical position of the US in the world.

Around the world, US LNG flows provide reliable, affordable and in many cases cleaner alternatives to other fossil fuels. LNG has become fundamental to the global energy transition, complementing rapid growth in renewables, displacing oil and coal consumption and promoting decarbonization in developing countries. 

The objective of this study is to provide a clear understanding of an industry that has, in less than a decade, gone from zero to become one of America’s major export industries, with wide-ranging benefits for the US economy, for the position of the US in the world and for global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. 

However, an array of regulatory and legal risks is jeopardizing more than $250 billion in incremental GDP and over 100,000 jobs annually through 2040. Furthermore, if US export growth potential were not to materialize, 85% of the resulting gap would be filled by fossil fuels from outside the US, according to S&P Global’s analysis. 

In this Phase 1 report, S&P Global’s unique energy, economics, and data analytics capabilities provide an objective and independent view of the impact of US LNG on the national economy. 

A Phase 2 companion study, to be released in March 2025, will complement Phase 1 with the most rigorous emissions analysis on the topic to date and regional economic and supply chain impact.  

This Phase 1 report is structured in three main sections:

1. Impact & Influence: US LNG Exports to Date, focuses on the economic impact of the US LNG industry through 2024 and its global influence. We establish the role of US exports as the leading supplier in a competitive global market. Overall, the report quantifies the total impact of this activity on the country’s job market, GDP, tax revenues, business revenues and associated expenditures.

2. Looking Forward: Base Case US LNG Exports Impact leverages S&P Global’s ‘Inflections’ Base Case to assess the long-term outlook for the LNG industry through 2040, and its projected economic and social impact within the US.

3. The ‘Pause’ & Beyond: Risk of a US LNG ‘Extended Halt’ Scenario presents the results of an added scenario quantifying the US and global impacts of excluding all new pre-Final Investment Decision (pre-FID) and US halted projects without FERC authorizations (28.2 & 16.2 million tons per annum (MMtpa), respectively) from S&P’s Base Case. The effects of this ‘halt’ and the projected global response will be a critical input for the companion Phase 2 report, particularly for the emissions impact analysis. 

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