Content provided by S&P Global. For more, visit S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Recent S&P Global analysis examining the potential natural gas market, economic, and tax impacts associated with the proposed Constitution Pipeline in the U.S. Northeast estimates that the 135-mile project could generate up to $11.6 billion in total energy savings over its 15-year contract period (2028–2043), including approximately $8.5 billion in net savings after assumed cost of service.

CONSTITUTION PIPELINE MARKET IMPACT REPORT

Market Dynamics and Price Effects
The analysis finds that the Northeast continues to experience recurring natural gas price volatility, particularly during winter months when constraints on existing pipeline capacity limit access to supply. Modeling conducted for the study indicates that the addition of incremental pipeline capacity could reduce local natural gas prices by up to 6% during peak winter periods in average weather years.

The report also notes that extreme winter weather events—occurring roughly once every five years—can push peak-day prices to as much as 36 times the annual average. Avoiding even one such event over the next 15 years could offset a substantial portion of the project’s total cost, according to Ed Kelly, Executive Director for North America Gas & LNG Consulting at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Economic Contribution Estimates
The analysis indicates that lower regional energy costs could correspond to up to $4.4 billion in additional gross state product across Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island. The project is also estimated to support nearly 2,000 jobs annually across the United States, including direct, indirect, and induced impacts. Total federal and state tax revenues could reach up to $432 million, while business revenues across the four states are projected at up to $8.5 billion.

Interaction With Regional Energy Trends
The report evaluates the pipeline’s potential role within the region’s evolving energy system. Growth in renewable generation has shifted peak demand for gas-fired power generation into the winter months—when renewable output tends to be lower—intensifying existing seasonal constraints. The analysis notes that these conditions are expected to persist absent additional access to natural gas supply.

The study also observes that improved natural gas deliverability and price stability could facilitate greater consumer switching from heating oil to natural gas, which has a 28% lower emissions intensity.

Summary of Key Findings: S&P Global Constitution Pipeline Market Impact Report

(2028-2043 pipeline contract term)

• Up to $11.6 billion in energy savings ($8.5 billion net savings after assumed cost of service) from reduced gas and power prices during market dislocations caused by outages and extreme winter price spikes, bolstered by consistent savings from increased access to low-cost gas supply
• Nearly 2,000 average annual direct, indirect and induced U.S. jobs supported
• Potential $4.4 billion impact on regional gross state product
• Up to $432 million total federal and state tax revenues
• Up to $8.5 billion total revenues for businesses across Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island